Research
UK Care Business Survival Index
58.8% of UK care businesses born in 2019 were still trading five years later. A 1 to 5-year survival curve for UK care businesses, built from ONS Business Demography birth-cohort data. Updated 2026-07-23.
Survival curve: residential care vs. social work without accommodation
Of the enterprises born in 2019, the share still active at each anniversary. Residential care (SIC 87: care homes, nursing homes) falls away faster than social work without accommodation (SIC 88: domiciliary care, day services), which has lower fixed costs and can scale headcount with contracted hours rather than a fixed building and bed base.
Residential care (SIC 87)
Social work without accommodation (SIC 88)
2019 birth cohort: 825 residential care births, 2,135 social-work-without-accommodation births. Counts are control-rounded to base 5 by ONS.
5-year survival by sub-segment (2019 cohort)
| Segment | 2019 births | 1-year | 3-year | 5-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential nursing care activities | 190 | 89.5% | 60.5% | 36.8% |
| Residential care for learning disability, mental health & substance misuse | 180 | 94.4% | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| Residential care activities for the elderly and disabled | 200 | 97.5% | 62.5% | 42.5% |
| Other residential care activities | 255 | 96.1% | 70.6% | 54.9% |
| Social work without accommodation for the elderly and disabled | 385 | 97.4% | 77.9% | 63.6% |
| Other social work activities without accommodation (incl. supported living) | 1,750 | 96.9% | 75.7% | 64.0% |
1-year survival by birth-year cohort, 2019 to 2023
Each recent birth cohort's 1-year survival rate, the fairest recent-years comparison since only the 2019 cohort has a full 5-year curve published so far.
| Birth year | Residential care (87) | Social work without accommodation (88) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 94.5% | 97.0% |
| 2020 | 95.3% | 97.1% |
| 2021 | 94.8% | 97.1% |
| 2022 | 95.1% | 97.4% |
| 2023 | 93.1% | 96.2% |
Methodology and sources
Survival rates are ONS's own published enterprise-level birth-cohort survival figures (Tables 5.2a-5.2e), read directly from the Standard Industrial Classification 2007 group breakdown: not re-derived or estimated. An 'enterprise' birth is a new business appearing on the Inter-Departmental Business Register in a given year; survival is measured against VAT/PAYE registration remaining active at each anniversary. Each birth-year cohort (2019 to 2023) can only show survival up to however many years have elapsed since that release: the 2019 cohort has the full 5-year curve, the 2023 cohort only 1-year. The combined 'all care' curve sums raw births and survivor counts for SIC 87 and SIC 88 before dividing, so it is an exact weighted figure, not an average of the two percentages.
Caveats
- SIC group counts are enterprise-level, not location-level: a single care company with multiple registered locations counts once here, unlike the CQC-based UK Care Home Density & Quality Index, which counts regulated locations.
- SIC is self-reported at incorporation; domiciliary care agencies sometimes register under residential SIC codes (87xxx) rather than 88100, so the SIC 87 / SIC 88 split is indicative, not exact.
- Counts are control-rounded to base 5 by ONS disclosure control, so small percentage movements between adjacent cohorts can reflect rounding as much as real change.
- 'Survival' means the enterprise remained VAT/PAYE-registered at that anniversary; it does not mean the same care service, ownership, or CQC registration continued unchanged (a home can survive as a business while changing registered manager or provider on the CQC register).
- Only the 2019 birth cohort has a complete 5-year curve in this release; later cohorts (2020 to 2023) are shown only as far as ONS has published, so the 1-year-survival trend across cohorts is the fairest recent-years comparison.
Source
Business Demography 2024 reference tables (Office for National Statistics, Open Government Licence v3.0, released 2025-11-20)
Download the full dataset: /research/uk-care-business-survival-index/data (CSV). See also the UK Care Home Density & Quality Index and the Care Provider Business Index.
Free to cite and republish with attribution to Care Home Tax. This page is a data summary and does not constitute financial or business advice on any individual care business.
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Frequently asked questions
How long do UK care businesses survive?
Of care businesses (SIC 87 residential care and SIC 88 social work without accommodation, combined) incorporated in 2019, 58.8% were still active five years later, based on ONS Business Demography birth-cohort survival data. Residential care businesses (45.5% five-year survival) fold at a materially higher rate than domiciliary and social-work-without-accommodation businesses (63.9%), reflecting the higher capital intensity and regulatory burden of running a physical care home.
Why is residential care home survival lower than domiciliary care survival?
Residential care homes carry building costs, staffing ratios tied to physical bed occupancy, and CQC registration requirements from day one, so a slow occupancy ramp or a single adverse inspection can be terminal. Domiciliary and other social-work-without-accommodation businesses have materially lower fixed costs and can scale headcount with contracted hours, which is consistent with their higher one, three and five-year survival rates in the ONS data.
What does 'survival' mean in this data?
ONS defines survival as the enterprise remaining VAT and/or PAYE registered at each anniversary of its birth (first appearance on the Inter-Departmental Business Register). It does not necessarily mean the same care service, ownership or CQC registration continued unchanged: a care home can survive as a legal enterprise while changing registered manager or provider on the CQC register, and conversely a home can be sold as a going concern in a way that shows up as one enterprise dying and another being born.
Where does this data come from?
The Office for National Statistics' Business Demography reference tables, published annually and derived from the Inter-Departmental Business Register. Table 5.2 tracks birth-year cohorts (here, enterprises born in 2019 to 2023) and their survival at each subsequent anniversary, broken down by Standard Industrial Classification 2007 group. Published under the Open Government Licence v3.0.